Trump’s new tariff on Brazil threatens the Port of Santos, which Has already exported R$ 12.8 billion to the U.S

Tariffs imposed by Trump pose a risk to the Port of Santos (Vanessa Rodrigues/AT)

The 50% tax announced by the United States on Brazilian products is expected to negatively impact exports starting August 1, the scheduled date for the measure to take effect. Even now, the possibility of reduced shipments to the U.S. market is raising red flags at the Port of Santos, Brazil’s main trade hub — responsible for handling 30% of the country’s international trade — and it risks losing cargo unless a resolution to the dispute is found.

In 2024, the U.S. imported over 8.1 million tons through the Port of Santos, totaling R\$ 12.8 billion. This accounts for 12.6% of the total exports from the port complex, placing the U.S. second only to China, which imported 42.4 million tons (R\$ 26 billion or 25.5%). These figures were provided by the Santos Port Authority (APS).

According to APS, the top five Brazilian exports to the U.S. last year were green coffee beans, crude petroleum, orange juice, machinery and equipment, and beef.

“There is no doubt the tariff will impact Brazil and will require a reorganization of relations with other trade partners. In this regard, the Santos Port Authority is prepared to accommodate potential changes in cargo profiles”, APS stated in a note to the press.

Trade balance The administrator of Brazil’s main port also noted that, including the first six months of 2025, there has been a consistent trade surplus in favor of the U.S. “If we consider the last 16 years, according to data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC), the trade advantage stands at US\$ 90 billion in favor of the U.S. Therefore, we hope they will not carry out this tariff threat, especially because they also stand to lose. ”

Losses According to Emanuel Pessoa, a lawyer with a Ph.D. in Economic Law and a professor at China Foreign Affairs University, around 35% of Brazil’s exports to the U.S. — estimated at US\$ 38 billion in 2024 — passed through the Port of Santos.

“This amounts to approximately US\$ 13.3 billion in goods. With the potential tariff hike, a decrease of up to 25% in this volume is projected, which would mean a reduction of about US\$ 3.3 billion in export flow via Santos by December”, he explained.

“This slowdown will hurt the Port’s revenue. Considering an average fee of 0.8% on the value of exported goods, the direct impact on port revenue could exceed US\$ 26 million — roughly R\$ 145 million at the current exchange rate”, he added.

Orange juice is among the products that could be heavily impacted by the U.S. tariff (Alexsander Ferraz/AT)

Land transport There may also be a decline in land transport. “With fewer goods departing from states such as Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, São Paulo, Paraná, and Minas Gerais, the volume of freight heading to Santos may drop between 10% and 18%. This will affect transport companies, agricultural cooperatives, and independent truckers, especially in the Santos-Campinas-Rondonópolis logistics corridor, which handles a large share of the country’s agro-industrial and refrigerated product exports”, said Pessoa.

He also stated that, in a moderate scenario, up to 800 direct jobs at the Port of Santos could be affected, along with approximately 2,000 indirect jobs in logistics, security, and general services.

Market fears sales impact Brazilian ports handle 95% of the country’s production. Therefore, the imposition of a 50% import tax on Brazilian goods by the U.S. will not only impact the foreign trade chain but also port operations and the domestic economy.

“Any change in import tariffs affects foreign trade activities, with consequences for port operations. There is still not enough data to assess the economic and social impacts”, said Sérgio Aquino, president of the National Federation of Port Operations (Fenop).

For José Augusto de Castro, executive president of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB), the measure poses a threat to the country’s economy. “It is certainly one of the highest tariffs a country has ever faced in the history of international trade, typically applied only to enemies, which has never been the case for Brazil.”

The main destinations of exports shipped via the Port of Santos (A Tribuna)

Castro fears that the U.S. announcement may harm Brazil’s international image, discouraging importers from other countries. “Who would want to get on the wrong side of President Trump? However, we believe that common sense will prevail and the tariff will be reversed.”

Arno Gleisner, Foreign Trade Director at the Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Services of Brazil (Cisbra), said the sector is concerned and perplexed. “If the 50% tariffs are maintained, the direct impact on Brazilian exports to the U.S. will be substantial. The American market is the largest in the world, with a wide range of imported products. In Brazil’s case, affected goods would include oil, coffee, meat, sugar, pulp, juices, fruits, semi-finished steel, aluminum, aircraft, and parts.”

Gleisner also mentioned that Cisbra’s Nearshoring project, which aims to expand business with nearby trade partners, could be harmed by the new tariffs. “The project envisions a strong increase in Brazilian exports to the United States.”

He added that the search for other markets by Brazilian exporters is already ongoing and part of their routine, but no market matches the size and diversity of the American one.

Tariff on Brazilian coffee could rise 400% Brazil is the main coffee supplier to the United States. In 2024, the country exported 8.1 million bags to the U.S., 34% more than the 6.1 million bags in 2023, accounting for 16.1% of all coffee exports last year. Currently, the U.S. import tax on coffee is 10%. If the 50% rate goes into effect, that’s a 400% increase.

So far this year, in the first five months, the U.S. has already imported 2.9 million bags of Brazilian coffee, representing 17.1% of the total.

“It is the most important coffee-consuming country, with around 24 million bags, and Brazil is the leading supplier in this market, holding over 30% market share”, said Marcos Matos, General Director of the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé).

He said the organization is working on a positive agenda with the U.S. National Coffee Association. “It’s important to remember that coffee generates significant wealth in the U.S.”

Matos also pointed out that the U.S. imports coffee and adds value through processing. “For every US\$1 of imported coffee, US\$43 is generated in the U.S. economy, creating 2.2 million jobs and accounting for 1.2% of the U.S. GDP, with US\$300.1 billion added to the economy. That’s because 76% of Americans drink coffee — it’s the most consumed beverage on the market today.”

Finally, Matos hopes that common sense and market predictability will prevail, as the cost will ultimately fall on the American consumer. “Any impact on consumption is harmful to trade flow, industry, and the development of producing and consuming countries. Therefore, we’re hopeful for a more appropriate and fair trade environment for Brazilian coffee exports to the U.S.”

Top five products exported to the U.S. via the Port of Santos

Green coffee beans – US\$ 1.39 billion – 324.7 thousand tons Crude petroleum – US\$ 1.37 billion – 2.9 million tons Orange juice – US\$ 1.03 billion – 1.68 million tons Machinery and equipment – US\$ 866.3 million – 91.4 thousand tons Beef – US\$ 824.5 million – 124 thousand tons