Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz raises global alarm and could impact the Port of Santos

Hormuz is crucial for China, which sees most of the oil it imports pass through the route bordered by Iran and the United Arab Emirates (Adobe Stock)

The mere possibility of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, raised by Iran on Sunday (22), just hours after a U.S. strike on the country’s nuclear bases, triggered a global alert across commercial, maritime, and logistics sectors. Even with the ceasefire initiated yesterday between Iranians and Israelis — which may prompt Iran to back down from closing Hormuz—the maritime route continues to raise global concerns, as it carries roughly 20% of the planet’s oil supply and could affect prices of various goods, including food.

Despite being over 12,000 kilometers away, even the Port of Santos would not be immune to the consequences — highlighting the strategic importance of the channel located between the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf in the Middle East, bordered by Iran and the United Arab Emirates. China, for example, relies heavily on this route, as the majority of the oil it imports flows through Hormuz.

Attorney Emanuel Pessoa, a PhD in Economic Law, explains that a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would trigger an automatic surge in Brent crude oil prices and a domino effect throughout the international logistics chain. “Maritime freight would be the first to react. Bunker fuel, which powers ships, would spike along with oil, putting pressure on global transportation costs.”

Brazil would be impacted because it depends on maritime transport to export grains, meat, and minerals. Additionally, it imports 80% of its fertilizers, much of which comes “from countries in the Persian Gulf region.”

Although international purchases are planned two to four months in advance, the expert notes that “the impact on futures contracts and logistics costs would be immediate. Within 30 days, companies would already be reassessing their operational costs and renegotiating freight. In up to 90 days, the first concrete effects would hit production, domestic prices, and exports.”

International Relations specialist Leandro Lopes also outlined the potential impacts of a Hormuz closure and explained why the issue continues to raise concern — even with the ceasefire already in effect.

“Even before the first ship turns around, the price per barrel would skyrocket, gas pumps would reflect the shock early, and agribusiness cost projections would become a minefield. Freight would become more expensive, the truck transporting beans to the port would cost twice as much, and every added expense would be felt on store shelves.”

Lopes draws attention to China, Brazil’s top trading partner. “Beijing would start stockpiling soy, renegotiating volumes, and recalibrating contracts. We’d be planting at higher costs, selling less, and Brazil would discover it depends on a handful of partners for more than 80% of everything going in and out of its warehouses.”

Port of Santos The president of the Santos Port Authority (APS), Anderson Pomini, says that China uses 70% of the oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz to fuel its vessels. “In 2024, the Port of Santos received 1,300 Chinese ships. If 70% of them are impacted, we will certainly face problems in Brazil-China navigation.” He also emphasizes that Brazil is one of the main exporters of corn and chicken to Iran and imports urea from the country for fertilizer production. “There would be impacts.”

Blockade could trigger oil price surge Ahmed El Khatib, coordinator of the Center for Finance Studies at Fundação Escola de Comércio Álvares Penteado (Fecap), notes that following the U.S. bombings in Iran last Monday, Brent crude jumped 11%, surpassing US\$ 78.

“International consulting firms project that if Hormuz is closed, the barrel could reach as high as US\$ 130.”

El Khatib outlined three scenarios for Brazil: stabilized prices following the end of the conflict; rising oil prices amid continued tension but without a Hormuz blockade; and, in the worst-case scenario—if the channel is closed—the barrel could hit US\$130, pushing Brazil into a dangerous combination of high inflation, rising interest rates, and negative growth. “The country could enter stagflation (high inflation and stagnation), with the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index) surpassing 7.5%, capital flight, and the Selic rate climbing beyond 16%.”

Market Arno Gleisner, Director of Foreign Trade at the Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Services of Brazil (AEB), notes that a Hormuz blockade would trigger a severe economic crisis—even for Iran and its allies—making it likely that the threat remains only a threat.

“Ships carrying oil and gas from Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and other countries to India and other Asian nations, as well as to the broader international market, pass through Hormuz.”

Gleisner assesses that a blockade would lead to an immediate spike in oil and gas prices, with negative effects on economic activity and inflation. “Brazil could be negatively affected in its export markets, given the increased cost of transportation.”