Coffee sector seeks to reverse Trump’s tariff hike and fears losses

Coffee for export is now almost entirely shipped in containers; last year, 8 million Brazilian bags were sent to the U.S., where Brazil holds 34% of the market (Vanessa Rodrigues/AT)

The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé) is hoping for a “balanced solution” in the coming months to prevent the 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee imported by the United States from being maintained. The measure, implemented by U.S. President Donald Trump, takes effect next Wednesday and includes several other products affected by the tariff hike.

Cecafé’s technical director, Eduardo Heron, emphasizes that the measure does not harm Brazil alone: Americans are the largest coffee consumers in the world, importing around 24 million bags per year. A price increase will impact the U.S. population.

“We are talking about a market where 76% of Americans drink coffee daily, and Brazil holds a 34% share. Historically, it’s our largest market — last year, the United States imported 8 million bags from Brazil. So when we analyze this scenario, both countries lose with this tariff”, Heron explains.

For this reason, he believes there will soon be a retreat. The Cecafé director points to the Brazilian government's efforts, led by Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, who is heading the negotiations, but notes that the private sector is also seeking solutions. “On the U.S. side, we have the National Coffee Association (NCA), which has been working internally with American lawmakers and the roasting industry. There’s no doubt that Brazilian coffee is essential in the American blend, as it provides the body, acidity, and sweetness”, Heron details.

He explained that the impact of the increased tariff (currently at 10%) will not be immediate, as stock arriving in the United States over the coming days will not yet be subject to the new rate.

“The 50% tariff will start applying from September onward. So far this year, we’ve already exported around 3.4 million bags to the U.S. by the end of June. But we believe that in the coming weeks, we may see progress, such as a revision to the exception list — and coffee may be included.”

Stock According to Anderson Pomini, president of the Santos Port Authority (APS), there may now be an increase in shipments of products not included on the list of goods subject to the 50% U.S. surcharge — such as orange juice and pulp. This is because, he says, exporters of these goods had already anticipated shipments and then paused to wait for developments. “There may be cargo buildup in the back area, the secondary zone, with traffic impacts due to the truck backlog.”

Beef The executive president of the Brazilian Association of Meat Packers (Abrafrigo), Paulo Mustefaga, says that losses in Brazilian beef and byproduct exports — also facing the 50% tariff — are estimated at US\$1.3 billion in 2025, and over US\$3 billion in 2026 and subsequent years if the tariff hike persists.

According to Abrafrigo, the United States accounted for 14.9% of Brazilian beef and byproduct exports, generating US\$1.038 billion in revenue between January and June 2025.

Brazil is expected to seek new markets to redirect its beef exports should the new 50% tariff on Brazilian products be upheld. China remains the largest buyer, accounting for 43% of Brazilian beef exports during the same period, totaling US\$3.2 billion.

Port In an interview with A Tribuna, Anderson Pomini, president of the Santos Port Authority (APS), stated that the Port of Santos is prepared in case export volumes increase ahead of the new tariff's implementation. “The port is accustomed to dealing with fluctuations, especially when driven by market sentiment and product pricing.”

He recalled that there was an initial export rush following the tariff hike announcement on July 9, even before sectors were specified. “Exports rose by 96% for beef, 40% for coffee, and 50% for pulp. Afterwards, there was a pause because it takes 14 days for a vessel to travel from Santos to the Port of Miami, the main U.S. entry port.”