China receives 85.4% of soybeans exported via the Port of Santos after Trump’s tariff hike

Soybean handling at the Port of Santos: Chinese market increases purchases of Brazilian production (Carlos Nogueira/AT/Archive)

Between January and September of this year, the Port of Santos shipped 30.9 million tons of soybeans, with the majority — 26.4 million tons (85.4% of the total) — destined for China. The volume exported in just nine months already surpasses the total for 2024, when the Santos port shipped 28 million tons of the commodity, sending 23.3 million tons to the Asian country. The statistical data comes from the Comex Stat system of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC).

For the past five months, China has been at an impasse with the United States regarding soybeans. Since May, China has stopped purchasing the product from the U.S. — previously its main supplier — in retaliation for the tariff hike imposed by President Donald Trump. Since then, China has increasingly turned to Brazilian soybeans.

According to a survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation, between January and August of this year, China imported 5.8 million tons of soybeans from the U.S. In the same period last year, the total was 26.5 million tons — a nearly 80% decrease. From June to August, according to the study, the U.S. shipped virtually no soybeans to the Chinese market. Meanwhile, Brazil exported more than 77 million tons of soybeans to China in the same period.

Regarding a potential increase in soybean export demand through Santos amid the trade dispute between the two countries, the president of the Santos Port Authority (APS), Anderson Pomini, stated that “the Port of Santos is Brazil’s main logistics asset and has shown, through successive records, that it is resilient and prepared” for potential demands.

“This is thanks to the strong synergy between the private sector and public authorities, and it must continue this way to meet both current and future demands, whether due to the country’s economic growth or to opportunities like the one now presented by the tariff hike”, Pomini added.

Caution advised Despite the current opportunity, the Director-General of the National Association of Cereal Exporters (Anec), Sergio Mendes, stated that the ideal scenario for exporters is one of “clear skies”, without volatility in currency, politics, or markets. “Any instability causes more problems than benefits.” According to him, wars, embargoes, or abrupt fluctuations in the exchange rate negatively impact the entire export chain. “You might gain momentarily, so to speak, but you lose shortly after.”

Mendes highlighted the fact that China is the largest buyer of Brazilian soybeans, accounting for over 70% of exports. “One November, about five or six years ago, we managed to supply 92% of China’s soybean demand with Brazilian soybeans in a single month.”

The Anec director emphasized that Brazil, beyond its capacity, has a vocation to be a major global food supplier. “The country was born agricultural — that is our nature. What exporters seek is a predictable, peaceful, and free-trade environment”, he reiterated.

Production According to data from the national association, soybean production this year is expected to set a new record compared to the previous harvest. The 2024/25 crop is estimated at 171.5 million tons, 13.6% higher than the 151 million tons produced in the 2023/24 season.

As for exports, while 97.3 million tons of soybeans were exported in 2024, this year’s expectation is to export 110 million tons, a 13.1% increase over the previous period.

Performance It is noteworthy that in just the first nine months of 2025, the Port of Santos has already exported more soybeans than during the entire previous year. From January to September this year, 30.9 million tons were shipped abroad, compared to 28 million tons between January and December of 2024.

Producers should be wary of excessive dependency Business law attorney, PhD in Economic Law, and professor at China Foreign Affairs University, Emanuel Pessoa, stated that the increase in Chinese demand for soybeans boosts Brazilian exports, improves the trade balance, and generates foreign exchange. However, he issued a word of caution.

“Greater allocation of production to the foreign market reduces domestic supply and drives up the price of byproducts such as soybean meal and oil, raising costs in livestock and the food industry. The context of restricted U.S. supply tends to push international soybean prices higher, which increases Brazil’s revenue but also raises the cost of agricultural inputs.”

Pessoa also noted that “volatility in futures contracts and exchange rates creates uncertainty in the domestic market. While the country strengthens its position as China’s main supplier, overdependence on a single buyer makes Brazil vulnerable to commercial and political pressure.”

Warning The American Soybean Association (ASA) warned President Trump that the sector is “on the brink of a commercial and financial cliff” and called for an end to the tariffs on China. The organization pointed out that the Asian country, responsible for over 60% of global soybean imports, has shifted to buying from Brazil, where soybeans are 20% cheaper than their U.S. counterparts.