There's concern that the shortage of coastal shipping professionals could reach 4,000 by 2030 (Carlos Nogueira/Archive AT) The inadequate training of Merchant Navy officers, known as seafarers, will have a drastic impact on brazilian navigation by 2030, with a projected deficit of professionals ranging from 2,000 to 4,000. This conclusion stems from a study conducted by Vanzolini Foundation and the Center for Innovation in Port Logistics and Infrastructure (Cilip) at the University of São Paulo (USP). Commissioned by the Brazilian Coastal Shipping Association (Abac), National Syndicate of Maritime Navigation Companies (Syndarma) and Brazilian Association of Offshore Support Companies (Abeam), the study took approximately six months to be completed and was presented last month. "The shortage of professionals damages operational quality, as we often lack the ability to select the best officers and end up using those available, who may not always meet the highest standards of operational quality", says Abac's executive director, Luís Resano. "The horizon ahead is worrisome", adds Syndarma's president, Gustavo Machado. The research processed 432,000 scenarios, calculating professional balances. Results indicate that in only 18,166 scenarios—equivalent to 4.2% of the total— would be no shortage of manpower. "This is a very small percentage, suggesting that these scenarios without officer shortages involve an annual demand growth of 1%", states the report. "According to regulations, brazilian-flagged ships must operate with brazilian seafarers. This will lead to significant losses, seriously compromising this condition. With the BR do Mar program, the idea was to expand the brazilian-flagged fleet. But if we don't have enough seafarers, how can we proceed? This shortage will lead to fewer ships due to the lack of workforce, compromising service to users", argues Resano. Among the scenarios, the worst shortage resulted is a deficit of 11,363 professionals, while the most positive balance showed an excess of 1,181 officers. On average, an expected shortage of 3,930 professionals is projected. "Based on these results, with high reliability, we can assert that there will be a shortage of officers in 2030, likely ranging between 2,000 and 4,000 professionals", confirms the study. Energy at Sea Syndarma's president further specifies future damages as "immeasurable", which will affect regular coastal transport services and impact the oil and gas industry. "There's a growing demand for offshore support vessels in the country, driven by Petrobras business plans, in addition to the intended oil and gas exploration in the Equatorial Margin (located between the states of Amapá and Rio Grande do Norte), potentially a new pre-salt region", he explains. Moreover, Machado highlights the need for offshore support vessels to support the new energy production universe at sea, generated by the installation of wind turbines and offshore wind farms. This initiative, notes the Syndarma's president, will certainly require more officers, who will also be employed in maritime units and platforms in significant numbers. "All these projects, coupled with the growing demand for coastal shipping and Transpetro's fleet, point to an immediate need for creating new jobs and employing Merchant Navy professionals", he concludes. 500 officers needed annually To prevent the projected shortage of 2,000 to 4,000 professionals by 2030, the study recommends that the Navy train at least 500 more seafarers annually. "We've been consistently urging the Navy to train more seafarers because when demand arises it's immediate. And it takes four years to train them. The Navy has been reluctant, citing feedback from the category's union that there's an oversupply of officers, a lack of employment and thus no need for more training", says Abac's executive director, Luís Resano. "The annual opening of vacancies, at its maximum and consistent number, would certainly avoid major fluctuations", adds Syndarma's president, Gustavo Machado. Actions In meetings with the Coast Ports Directorate, responsible for seafarer training, Machado revealed that actions are being sought for 2025, as requested by shipowners. Among them are increasing slots at training schools and resuming courses for the adaptation and updating of Nautical and Machinery officers. "Syndarma also believes it's necessary to reformulate the policy for releasing funds from the Maritime Professional Education Development Fund, allowing schools to have facilities in permanent modernization and adaptation, keeping pace with the development of vessels", argues the president. Disservice Syndarma's president, Gustavo Machado, goes further and classifies the failure to maximize training capacity as a disservice to the brazilian population, harming the country's development and urgently needing correction. "The training provided by the Navy prepares qualified professionals, with higher education, enabling them to enter the market, occupying thousands of jobs. There's a significant potential for these professionals to be employed in various other activities of the brazilian economy, such as municipal, state and federal public service careers; industrial parks of all kinds; and middle and senior management positions in maritime and river transportation companies, among others", he lists.