Concession of the Port of Santos channel sees value increase of 263%

The Santos waterway channel is 24.6 kilometers long, divided into four sections, 220 meters wide, with a nominal depth of 15 meters. The concession provides for deepening to 17 meters and studies to enable expansion to 18 meters (Alexsander Ferraz/AT)

The access channel concession model of the Port of Santos presented by the Agência Nacional de Transportes Aquaviários (Antaq) meets the technical and operational demands of the Autoridade Portuária de Santos (APS). The infrastructure project involves a cash flow of R\$ 23.4 billion over the 25-year contract term, extendable up to 70 years. The projected amount is 263.6% higher than the initially disclosed figure of R\$ 6.45 billion.

Approved at a meeting of the regulatory agency’s collegiate board on Thursday (5), the project will be submitted to public consultation and a public hearing to gather contributions from the sector and interested parties for the necessary adjustments. The contract includes deepening dredging to 16 and 17 meters, a feasibility study for 18 meters, channel maintenance, and implementation of the VTMIS — a vessel traffic control and monitoring system.

The term is 25 years, which may be extended up to 70 years, with a retention account mechanism (part of what the concessionaire receives is withheld to fund the works) and a supported proposal (which must present a financial guarantee). “The retention account ensures that investments actually take place”, said Antaq director Flávia Takafashi, who served as rapporteur for the case at the agency.

The original project was prepared by the Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES), based on the model defined for the channel of the Port of Paranaguá (PR). However, in August of last year, APS requested adjustments to adapt it to the needs of the Santos quay. “From the outset, the Autoridade Portuária de Santos warned the Ministério de Portos e Aeroportos (MPor) and Antaq that the modeling originally inspired by the Port of Paranaguá did not reflect the operational complexity, traffic volume, risk level, and scale of the Port of Santos”, said APS president Anderson Pomini in an interview with A Tribuna.

“The progressive deepening to 17 meters and the inclusion of the VTMIS were indeed formal requests from APS, precisely to ensure navigational safety, operational predictability, and future expansion capacity", he emphasized. The manager of the Santos quay noted that APS presented a series of adjustments based on technical data from the waterway channel itself, such as “traffic density, vessel size, operational risks, urban interferences, and growth projections.”

In addition to these measures, the APS president explained that the concession model began to incorporate structural interventions considered essential to the operation of the port complex. These include containment and protection works at Ponta da Praia (sedimentation), differentiated deepening, and specific interventions in the Vila dos Criadores area, in the Alemoa neighborhood, as well as adjustments to enable the orderly expansion of the Port.

“We advocated that these interventions be expressly included in the bidding documents, avoiding generic solutions and ensuring that the concession reflects the real needs of the Port”, Pomini stressed. He also highlighted the incorporation of technology, integrated channel management, modern buoyage, and continuous monitoring as factors that raise governance and safety standards.

Is it viable for the market?

Pomini believes this is a highly attractive project from the perspective of the specialized market. “The main global companies in the dredging and port infrastructure sector have already shown interest, precisely because the concession of the Port of Santos channel concentrates the highest demand for navigation, ship traffic flow, and cargo handling in Brazil.”

He reiterated that Santos presents an average annual growth of around 10%, considering all cargoes, which translates into greater continuous demand for maintenance and deepening dredging, and a permanent need for channel management. “Moreover, the scale of the contract naturally requires companies with proven technical expertise, which reduces execution risks and increases attractiveness for global operators seeking long-term, structuring projects with high strategic relevance”, added the APS president.

Experts highlight advances

The new navigation channel concession model of the Port of Santos, approved by Antaq, is assessed by specialists consulted by A Tribuna as a relevant advance, but one that still requires adjustments to increase market attractiveness and reduce risks.

International consultant at HPC Hamburg Port Consulting, Marcelo D’Antona, first explained that the estimated value of R\$ 23.4 billion associated with the Port channel concession “does not represent investments, but the estimated global value of the contract over 25 years, which includes all fixed and variable contributions to be paid to the granting authority.”

According to D’Antona, the economic-financial modeling was structured to bring the project to a Net Present Value (NPV) equal to zero, considering the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). “In practice, this means that the concessionaire recovers costs and remunerates capital, but does not earn additional economic gain in the base scenario”, he said.

The specialist also noted that the reference variable contribution, set at 23.03% of gross operating revenue, tends to be reduced at auction. “This percentage functions as a competitive benchmark. In a bidding environment, it is expected that bidders will offer lower values, which reduces the effective economic value of the contract”, he said.

Regarding mandatory investments, he highlighted that the minimum capex (infrastructure) commitment is on the order of R\$ 688 million, associated with dredging approximately 14 million cubic meters to deepen the channel to 16 and 17 meters.

Regarding the feasibility of the model, the consultant acknowledged that in the initial phases there were questions about the absence of a fully structured market study, but assessed that the gap was partially addressed.

“Complementary demand and economic-financial feasibility studies were incorporated, which made it possible to move forward to public consultation and public hearing”, said D’Antona, emphasizing that the public consultation process is essential to identify weaknesses, adjust assumptions, and make the model more robust before the final version.

Legal certainty

Lawyer specializing in Maritime, Customs, and Port Law, Cristina Wadner, stated that the central challenge lies not in legislation, but in contractual design. “To attract investors, the essential factor is to have rules that provide predictability and reduce disputes. The contract must treat the channel as a continuous service, not as an isolated work.”

According to her, the model must be performance-oriented, with targets such as available draft, channel availability, and response time. “It is not enough to measure dredged volume. Independent verification, standardized bathymetries, and an objective risk matrix with clear rebalancing rules are required”, she said.

Cristina believes that Brazil has sufficient legal and institutional foundations for a concession of this size. “The country has regulation by Antaq and oversight by competent authorities. The critical point is not the lack of law, but the quality of the contractual design.”

For the lawyer, if measurable targets, data auditing, navigation safety governance, and objective rebalancing triggers are well defined before the auction, “the model tends to be legally sound and operationally sustainable.”

Experts highlight advances

For the president of the Autoridade Portuária de Santos (APS), Anderson Pomini, the scale of the contract naturally requires companies with proven technical expertise. “This reduces execution risks and increases attractiveness for global operators seeking structuring, long-term projects with high strategic relevance”. Pomini also stated that APS may submit new requests to Antaq if it identifies additional needs. “It is our institutional duty to provide the agency with technical and strategic data to ensure that the bidding documents faithfully reflect the needs of the port complex”, he said. He emphasized that the objective is to preserve the role of APS in strategic decisions regarding an asset of national public interest.

Phases

The concession provides for deepening the channel to 16 meters in a first stage and subsequently to 17 meters. The contractual scope includes maintenance dredging of the channel, basins, and public berths, management of the Polígono de Disposição Oceânica (PDO), implementation and operation of the VTMIS, and modernization of buoyage with articulated buoys. Studies are also предусмотрed for future deepening of the channel to 18 meters and for the implementation of a training wall (guia-corrente). The estimated minimum investments for these phases of the project, up to the 8th year of the contract, total R\$ 688.1 million. The access channel of the Port of Santos is 24.6 kilometers long (divided into four sections), 220 meters wide, with a nominal depth of 15 meters and an approved operational draft ranging from 13.5 meters at low tide to 14.5 meters at high tide.